The Forecasting Capacity of Housing Price Expectations

This study captures the essential elements of the price expectations of market participants in a rising market. Adopting a forward-looking approach, this paper explores the effectiveness of expectations as an indicator of forthcoming housing price changes in Hong Kong. Examination of the quarterly survey data from December 2003 to September 2007 indicates that both homeowners and non-homeowners tend to overestimate the probability of future housing price increases yet underestimate its volatility. This adds weight to the argument that market participants are generally not rational in the prediction of price movement. Homeowners, investors and potential home buyers have more or less the same level of confidence about the future market outlook. Like non-owners, they expect higher prices. The number of correct forecasts exceeds incorrect forecasts, suggesting that overall price expectations are fairly close to realization. It can be broadly concluded that the aggregate price expectations in the long run can be an appropriate forecasting tool for future market performance.Price expectations; Forecastability; Housing market; Hong Kong

Presumed choroidal metastasis from soft tissue myoepithelial carcinoma

Purpose: To report a case of presumed choroidal metastasis from soft tissue myoepithelial carcinoma and highlight challenges in its diagnosis. Observations: A 52-year-old man was referred with a two-week history of photopsia in his left eye. His background medical history included known soft tissue myoepithelial carcinoma metastatic to his bone, lung, liver and chest wall. A large, raised, yellow choroidal lesion was identified nasal to and abutting the optic disc. This lesion demonstrated growth 1 month after presentation. The patient died with widespread metastatic disease 5 months after initial presentation. Conclusion and importance: Soft tissue myoepithelial carcinoma can rarely metastasise to the choroid and present as a rapidly-growing, yellow, echodense tumour with serous retinal detachment. MRI brain can assist in tumour evaluation and monitoring progression, while immunoperoxidase stains and molecular testing can assist with diagnosis. The condition has an aggressive natural history and poor prognosi

Anisotropic Galactic Outflows and Enrichment of the Intergalactic Medium. I: Monte Carlo Simulations

We have developed an analytical model to describe the evolution of anisotropic galactic outflows. With it, we investigate the impact of varying opening angle on galaxy formation and the evolution of the IGM. We have implemented this model in a Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate galaxy formation and outflows in a cosmological context. Using this algorithm, we have simulated the evolution of a comoving volume of size [12h^(-1)Mpc]^3 in the LCDM universe. Starting from a Gaussian density field at redshift z=24, we follow the formation of ~20,000 galaxies, and simulate the galactic outflows produced by these galaxies. When these outflows collide with density peaks, ram pressure stripping of the gas inside the peak may result. This occurs in around half the cases and prevents the formation of galaxies. Anisotropic outflows follow the path of least resistance, and thus travel preferentially into low-density regions, away from cosmological structures (filaments and pancakes) where galaxies form. As a result, the number of collisions is reduced, leading to the formation of a larger number of galaxies. Anisotropic outflows can significantly enrich low-density systems with metals. Conversely, the cross-pollution in metals of objects located in a common cosmological structure, like a filament, is significantly reduced. Highly anisotropic outflows can travel across cosmological voids and deposit metals in other, unrelated cosmological structures.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures (2 color). Revised version accepted in Ap

The Variability of Sagittarius A* at Centimeter Wavelengths

We present the results of a 3.3-year project to monitor the flux density of Sagittarius A* at 2.0, 1.3, and 0.7 cm with the VLA. The fully calibrated light curves for Sgr A* at all three wavelengths are presented. Typical errors in the flux density are 6.1%, 6.2%, and 9.2% at 2.0, 1.3, and 0.7 cm, respectively. There is preliminary evidence for a bimodal distribution of flux densities, which may indicate the existence of two distinct states of accretion onto the supermassive black hole. At 1.3 and 0.7 cm, there is a tail in the distribution towards high flux densities. Significant variability is detected at all three wavelengths, with the largest amplitude variations occurring at 0.7 cm. The rms deviation of the flux density of Sgr A* is 0.13, 0.16, and 0.21 Jy at 2.0, 1.3, and 0.7 cm, respectively. During much of this monitoring campaign, Sgr A* appeared to be relatively quiescent compared to results from previous campaigns. At no point during the monitoring campaign did the flux density of Sgr A* more than double its mean value. The mean spectral index of Sgr A* is alpha=0.20+/-0.01, with a standard deviation of 0.14. The spectral index appears to depend linearly on the observed flux density at 0.7 cm with a steeper index observed during outbursts. This correlation is consistent with the expectation for outbursts that are self-absorbed at wavelengths of 0.7 cm or longer and inconsistent with the effects of simple models for interstellar scintillation. Much of the variability of Sgr A*, including possible time lags between flux density changes at the different wavelengths, appears to occur on time scales less than the time resolution of our observations (8 days). Future observations should focus on the evolution of the flux density on these time scales.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in A